And The Race Is On!

After developing and selling technology for the capital markets and financial services industry, I’ve learned some things about the value of real-time information. The same now seems to hold true for online social information sharing. Let me explain what I mean.

In the world of capital markets which includes brokerages and wirehouses, such as Morgan Stanley, and traditional banks such as Bank of America and Citi, real time information becomes an incredibly valuable commodity (or more precisely necessity). First, the aggregators and distributors of capital markets real time information include the likes of mega-info companies including Thomson-Reuters and Bloomberg. Second, some of the suppliers of this data include stock exchanges such as NYSE. And third, the users of this information include financial traders, mutual fund managers, wealth managers and financial advisors – to name a few. Those users or recipients of this real time information spend a lot of money on purchasing and employing this data to give them an edge about a company or fund that they might invest in (or not).

What is evolving analogously in the world of social media is quite similar. While instant messaging was the early leader in delivering real time interpersonal information, it’s the advent of Twitter that is really making this a potential business phenomenon and necessity. Twitter is the supplier of all this instant opinion information.

Just recently, Microsoft and Facebook announced initiatives to aggregate and promote Twitter information. They are the equivalent to Thomson-Reuters at this point. Of course Facebook, not to be outdone, would also like to be a competitive supplier in this market and is now allowing some real time views (aka status updates) of information posted by its 200 million users to be more publicly accessible. While Microsoft, through its new Bing search engine, is providing an index to the most followed Twitterer’s , bringing Twitter information to its search engine in less than a minute (near enough to real time).

So why is this trend important? It may provide businesses and marketers the ability to look at consumer interests, buying patterns and the effects of new product releases in near instantaneous fashion.

There is one issue that should be important to everyone. In the world of capital markets, real time information is about stocks and investments for the most part – relatively innocuous from a personal standpoint. However, in the world of Twitter and Facebook, the information is about us and our behavior. This type of real time market segmentation information has the potential to infringe on our privacy rights. Many of us have already seen our personal data being used for purposes that go beyond our consent. So while I look forward to the next wave of social media progress, we also need to be vigilant in how this affects our social communities and privacy.

Current Trends for Facebook and Twitter

As most of you probably know, Microsoft, up until a few days ago, had been using its Live Search engine with MSN. However, Live Search from Microsoft has been in a bit of classic web branding quandary as livesearch.com is owned by Tyler Tullock (not Microsoft) who is trying to retire on the ownership of that domain name by either selling it to Microsoft or getting compensated by driving traffic to Google (and to be fair, he did own the domain first).  On the enterprise search side, Microsoft leads with FAST, the engine they also purchased about 18 months ago – but FAST doesn’t appear to play a major role in their consumer oriented approach – at least at this time.

The big money and market share play is around consumer search and Live Search at least had little or no brand or market control compared to Google or Yahoo. So Microsoft, in its quest to gain a share of search player status, has been investing in their latest incarnation of search which we know is branded as Bing. Bing now has its own website, name and look and feel.

Accordingly Microsoft has been investing heavily in promoting Bing, I believe to the tune of nearly 9 figures – a hefty sum these days for advertising and promotion.  But what’s the alternative? According to their Q3, March 30, 2009 financials, overall revenue was down 6% and online advertising revenues took a double digit drop of 13%. So it makes sense that Microsoft needs to know if they can build a competitive market in search in the near future and the timing is hopefully propitious for them as they enter their new fiscal year.

How will Microsoft know if Bing is successful? That question was posed last week to Scott Howe, Microsoft Corporate Vice President, Advertiser and Publisher Solutions Group, during Federated Media’s Conversational Marketing (CM) Summit in NY. His company, aQuantive Inc., was bought in 2007 for something like $6B, so it was no surprise that he had his own Mercedes limo driver parked out in front of the Hudson Theater in NY waiting for him (on 44th Street in the theater district, that is usually reserved for real entertainers).

In any case, he was asked how much he thought it was worth to Microsoft for a percentage point gain in market share (paraphrasing of course). Obviously, and as he replied, Microsoft is not looking for incremental gains, but something that elevates them into the high teens and beyond. Anything else in the big picture is probably a failure (my comment – not his).

So if Bing booms, then Microsoft scores big time. It will likely eat into Yahoo and Google’s market share, causing at least for Yahoo a further decline in value –something that they can ill afford. And what a great way for Microsoft to start the New Year. On the other hand if Bing bombs, then Yahoo’s stock possibly increases making it both more expensive and probably more imperative to get back into negotiations with Yahoo. In either scenario, Microsoft should know by the end of their Q1 which direction the market wind is blowing.

Bing already seems to be picking up some early momentum (several percentage point increase in market share) and the search engine and its interface have some pretty nice features. The question is whether it’s enough to get people to migrate and stay migrated.